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Cake day: October 29th, 2024

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  • I live on a high floor and it’s a fucking pain to deal with the cold and lack of water. Than being said, I can manage. I do feel for ladies like Janchuk. My grandma is 80+, but we can support her.

    Individuals like Merkel with their arrogance and de facto support for russian genocidal imperialism are massive enablers of the russians (Schröder is a piece of shit too, but unlike Merkel I don’t think he actually believes in anything, if the bribe is large enough he will pitch anything). I hope both of them get a severe case of Alzheimer’s.


  • In a sense, we were really lucky that Yanukovich was a fool and a coward. Trump too is committed to ignorance and he is definitely a huge coward, but he knows how to “own” his corruption and criminality in a manner that appeals to a significant portion of the US public (perhaps not a majority or even a plurality, but whatever it is, it is large enough to matter). That wasn’t true about Yanukovich.

    The killing of protesters in Feb 2014 was the inflection point, a point of no return. That’s when a significant portion of society came to the conclusion that the Yanukovich regime has to go. And the fact that the public pushed back, even with the use of violence by regime goons, is what doomed Yanukovich. The Yanukovich regime was not able to take back Maidan Nezalezhnosti; the “main square of the country”, if a government can’t control it, it de facto does not have legitimacy.

    His senior allies started to get worried that they would have to go down with the ship and that they wouldn’t be able to “lawyer their way out of it” and might have to face true justice from the public. I would argue the same was true of the security forces, when the public fought back, they started asking themselves uncomfortable questions about whether it was worth risking their lives for some thugs (who would be focused on saving their own butts).

    There really was a sense of “history is being made in front of our eyes” or the apocryphal quote “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” There was a whole parallel self-organized administration. Tens of thousands of people were flowing in from the regions to Kyiv to back anti-regime protests (not to mention every region had its own protest HQ, even Crimea had protesters opposing the regime). During the day the crowds would swell to hundreds of thousands. People were constantly bringing in supplies (food, medicine, protective gear, I personally delivered donations from foreigners who supported the protesters, but didn’t want to enter Maidan/Khreshatik). In the night the security forces would try and siege the liberated part of the city, you could even see how the barricade line would move through the square over the days (security services gaining a bit, protesters pushing them back in other days).

    Of course, America is not Ukraine, but perhaps this is a case in which America can learn something from Ukraine.

    This is a pattern of authoritarian drift that Ukrainians are closely familiar with: rapid consolidation of executive power, aggressive use of state capacity against perceived enemies (including former allies who dared defy the president), and a growing insistence that legality is whatever the leader says it is.

    In pushing against all that, Americans can take a page from Ukraine’s civil society playbook.

    I tend to agree. Life is a strange thing:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nNFrvGOb9o

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwf9EjesvtM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eTuFAR169s

    Sure US has its own specific challenges: much more competent and violent security forces, much less “motivated” society (a national liberation movement is a powerful thing), but US also doesn’t have to deal with many challenges that are present in Ukraine. Specifically, an enemy neighbouring country x4-x5 times larger where the overwhelming majority of the population is committed to genocidal imperialism.













  • I misunderstood. Apologies.

    While I agree that a black and white approach isn’t exactly accurate, you can get to a point where the situation becomes close enough to black/white as a matter of practical considerations (i.e. outcomes). Again, not something specific to the US, it can and does happen everywhere.

    I am still clinging to the hope that the Americans will turn things around (i.e. no Obama “hope and change” while avoiding addressing crime and corruption), but it’s becoming increasingly difficult.

    And claiming that the overwhelming majority of the US far right is incapable of empathy (or that they are fundamentally supportive of crime and corruption) isn’t factually incorrect to my knowledge.


  • I disagree with this framing.

    I’ve travelled and lived for several years in many countries across NA (including the US), Europe and Asia.

    One thing that I’ve learned is that it’s important to keep an open mind, to look at the good things in a given society/culture and to not be overly judgmental. It’s important to not frame thing in terms of expectations from another environment.

    That being said there are limits to everything. Looking at the trajectory of American society, it is not unreasonable to speculate that their march towards a chauvinistic, corrupt plutocracy is not going to stop.

    I would love to be wrong (it’s a disaster that the US has essentially turned into a mafia state), but to deny reality is the definition of cope.


  • I think the Americans are going to leave NATO soon. It seems like a logical outcome of their current trajectory (among many other things). As things stand, it is unlikely there will be any true change American society; ~40% are committed to a chauvinistic, pro-crime, pro-corruption direction and even many in the “far right lite” (what is marketed as “moderates” in the US) or even the centre right don’t have any appetite for real anti-crime reform (for example arresting and charging Zuckerburg and other senior Meta executives for a pre-meditated multi billion dollar fraud scheme, and that’s one tiny example out many).

    The victory of the centre-right in elections for the lower house isn’t going to change anything. Even a hypothetical win by someone like Michelle Obama (or one of Biden’s cabinet ministers) is just going to lead to more shallow and meaningless “Courage, Hope and Change!” rhetoric and no action. I really hope I am wrong, but can you really blame me for taking such a less than charitable posture?

    Europe should have started re-arming and preparing as far back as 2008 when the russians invaded Georgia (let alone the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022). Merkel was warned by multiple EU members what the (overwhelming majority) of russians are like, yet to this day, even in retirement, she continues to promote russian narratives.

    Say what you want about the current situation, but it’s Europe’s Carpe diem moment. Almost a unique opportunity.



  • That’s a fair point, but with software platforms, I don’t think you can make a seamless migration tool without Google’s cooperation. And there a lot of roadblocks and malicious compliance type strategies that US oligarchic institutions can adopt. There is also the issue of monopoly-like network effects.

    Considering their administration’s behaviour and the current course of American society, I think it’s better to make a permanent break with US. I do not think they will be able to address corruption and criminality. Even if the centre-right comes to power, it will be some variant of Obama, perhaps competent, but with zero desire to reign in corruption, oligarchs and prosecute criminals. Just like Obama refused to prosecute the financial industry oligarchs, a hypothetical centre-right leader won’t address Meta’s $16 billion raised via conscious enablement of fraud.

    Then there will be another election, they’ll seed in some more propaganda about “freedom” and “destruction of America” and you’ll have JD Vance elected or perhaps someone even far worse than Vance or Trump.

    To hell with that.

    I’ve lived in the US for several years and travelled extensively, I feel confident in what I am saying. A large portion of American society is obsessed with ostentatious posturing about how they are the biggest supporters of “freedom” in the world (and similar self-aggrandizing polemics), that they cannot be engaged with in good faith.