While tensions have reached a high point, that doesn’t mean renewed war is inevitable. Al-Basha pointed to Saudi Arabia’s decision to allow the Iranian aircraft on 13 July to land and depart from Hodeidah without striking that airport as an indicator that Riyadh seeks to avoid escalation.

Similarly, the Houthis’ decision to only target Abha rather than larger airports like Jeddah and even Riyadh suggests they too want to contain the confrontation.

“That said, the crisis is far from resolved,” Al-Basha said. “While negotiations continue in Muscat and through other back channels, both sides appear to be preparing for the possibility of a broader conflict.”

“I do not think a full-scale war is imminent,” he added. “There could still be another round of limited strikes, but for now, that is my assessment.”